06-01-2017, 07:07 PM
(06-01-2017, 06:59 PM)Francis Begbie Wrote: The British public are cretins who vote for lies on buses, but one thing they don't like is being openly treated with contempt like this. It's no wonder this nonsense has led to the arse out of the polls collapsing for her. She doesn't deserve to win and if there's any justice, she won't (she 99% certainly will). It's a sad state of affairs when the prospect of Diane Abbott in one of the four Great Offices is the palatable choice
Well, here's a theory. Last year, younger voters at least turned out in greater numbers than in 2015: turnout among 18-24y/o was 63%. But the old turned out in extraordinary, unparalleled numbers: rather paralleling what happened in Scotland in 2014.
Famously, as the results were coming in, google searches for "what is the EU?" and associated items shot up: surely coming from a lot of people who hadn't bothered to vote. And the young, meanwhile, were enraged, suddenly engaged, and for want of a better phrase, woke.
Now we have a Labour leader whose greatest asset is mobilising young voters. I can't see how turnout in that age group will hit the 80s; but somewhere in the 60s or even 70s is achievable. Does the old turn out in the same force as last year? No - because:
1. Huge numbers of people are mightily pissed off at there being yet another election
2. This isn't a referendum; it's not such a big deal as that
3. The dementia tax may result in at least some staying at home, others going Labour
4. May's conduct throughout the campaign. Which is insulting everyone's (limited, in many cases) intelligence.
If the Tories still win a huge majority despite all this, it's a comment on the voting system. Not on the actual state of things. And if Labour lose, the anger young people and those in their 30s and early 40s will grow and before long, reach critical mass. May hasn't just had a horrific campaign; she's set the Tories back years.






